Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goZQ6iOIFYo
the jurogan experience so that's one issue with the death county is that so many of the people so so let's say you're and i urge people one of the things that i've done a couple times on twitter that always gets an interesting response is you can go look at coroner's reports especially in milwaukee where they put them all online of people who've died so you can actually see the people who have died of covid and you'll see how sick they are for the most part i'm talking about people in their 80s and 90s who have multiple severe comorbidities so in that case it's really hard to tell did this person die with covet or from covid you know if my heart is failing and my kidneys are failing and i get this thing and i die the next day okay i died did i die did i die with covet or did i die two weeks before i would have died anyway and we're counting that as from coveted or maybe even a year before you would have died anyway but the 2.6 co-morbidity factors that's the average that's right for people that died of cove that's correct that's a good way of saying it again it's very very hard to distinguish with and from in these cases of people who are really sick now sometimes it's not that way sometimes you can say again a 50 year old who is relatively healthy gets coveted they died they died from covid okay covet killed them we can agree about that but at the many of the cases are hard to hard to understand or not hard to understand but hard to distinguish and i'll make one more point about deaths very very very important point pcr testing you you you know you i know i know you know you know what this is yes you you know you you look for a sample of the virus in you know usually it's in the nose you multiply it and you run a cycle where it doubles over and over and over again and when it gets to a certain point uh they actually it's it's actually incredible technology it's sort of it's sort of magical but they add a
fluorescent marker to it and at some point if you can see the fluorescence it's considered a positive sample okay here's the thing a 40 cycle pcr test means that you are multiplying the original any original viral material in that sample by one trillion times okay so a single viral particle that you pick up becomes one trillion particles it is very very easy to find virus in people when you're running a pcr cycle at that at that level okay it does not mean necessarily that they're very sick at the time it doesn't even mean that they have active virus in their bodies at the time they could have a piece of virus that uh that that the that the original sample is picking up and multiplying by 40x okay it's clear by the way when people have a low threshold let's say 20 times let's say it only takes 20 cycles that's a million multiplications if you're positive at 20 cycles you're pretty sick if you're positive at 25 cycles you're probably pretty sick if you're positive at 30 cycles maybe not 40 cycles it doesn't really mean anything it means that you have you know you have this one bit of virus in you that they've managed to find does it mean you're contagious it probably doesn't mean you're contagious i don't like that word i like that word probably well i'm around grandma i i don't like to say never unless i'm sure okay right so when i say probably it usually means never but i just don't like saying i understand okay when we count deaths the states have a procedure most states they look at positive tests and they match them with death certificates okay so let's say you had a positive test okay in tomorrow okay and let's say it was 38 cycles they're not going to tell you that but it was 38 cycles okay you are not very sick at all with covid okay but you're in a registry somewhere your name's in a registry
a month and a half later you die let's say you get hit by a car that will still initially come up as a positive coveted death because you had a positive test and you died within a specific amount of time after having that test but they don't distinguish from a violent accident not not initially now some of the states are trying to clear this up but let's say you died of a heart attack joe okay a heart attack is a potential you know outcome of covet you're always going to be on there if you died of a heart attack so you're saying that if you have this tiny amount of covet in your system you never wind up getting sick but yet you have a heart attack a couple weeks later three four weeks later they will still call that a covid death one even though you never got sick from kovacs 100 that doesn't seem smart uh the idea is to capture deaths as broadly as possible the idea is this is a you know serious illness and we want to know every possible person who's died from it we don't do this with any other illness is it because they don't have the resources differentiate between the people that have died from heart attacks where it's clear oh we looked at the person they had a very small amount of the virus in this system four weeks later there's no way they were sick from that but is that it's a function of decisions that have been made along the way so they could have set the pcr threshold at lower they could have said it at 30. they were aware from almost the beginning of this issue that you know you can find a comment from fauci in july talking about this okay but and certainly and you know and certainly they knew well before this the idea was we want to know sort of as broadly as possible how many people have this and then secondarily we want to define deaths from covid as broadly as possible and what is the what is the level set up currently um different states have different levels but in most places it's 37 to 40 cycles which again means that a lot of those
people at the high end are not sick and they they certainly had covet at some point but they probably don't have it anymore here's here's the other reason to do this show if you if you set it really high you're going to capture people on the way in just as they're getting sick so if you're truly afraid of we want to quarantine everybody really early then you have to set the threshold really high so so that to the extent there's a logic behind it that's the logic behind it but it has all these negative side effects um so there was one other point i want to make but i i'll remember it in a second so the negative side effects would be that the the they're inflating the number of people that not just have it but die from it because of the fact that they're making sure that these deaths that get linked within a certain time period what is the time period so in some states it's 30 days in some states it's 60 days i don't know if it's more than 60 anywhere um but but the states are sort of allowed to define it oh here's okay so there's a negative for the person who's tested positive because you then have to isolate yourself you can't work you know you're scared um and then there's this negative for society with the death counts later right but isn't that that negative that you have to isolate yourself and you can't work that seems very rational because if you do test like let's say you're on the way in you catch it you have a little tiny bit of it in your system and they're like you have to isolate you have covet yes what if that person just went out and started drinking got run down the covet multiplies and then they have a full blown case and then they start spreading so so that is look realistically can that happen sometimes yes that seems like that would happen a lot well it doesn't happen that much because at 37 you're asymptomatic so you're not going to know unless you have some reason to be tested
but isn't there a significant amount of spread from asymptomatic people so this is another argument that we don't there's asymptomatic spread it looks to be very rare although you know now fauci is saying it's not so rare there's pre-symptomatic spread pre-symptomatic spread appears to be more real we need another person other than fauci that's the one guy we do like everyone says fauci says like we have this guy yes let me let me let me say one more thing about death count okay okay back in march and april people said kova deaths are being undercounted we don't we're not doing enough testing there's all these people dying they're being called pneumonia deaths it's probably cobit that was probably true at the time especially in new york and new jersey you can look and you can see the number of what are called excess deaths more people dying than you would expect in a normal year was higher than the number of cova deaths okay and a lot of those deaths were in people who had pneumonia okay so that looks like hey we didn't even you know this is even worse than we thought we're capturing uh we're not even capturing everybody who died okay but that was march and april let's talk about what's happening now we know the pcr tests are going to capture a lot of people who aren't sick anymore and who maybe never were sick we know that some of those people are going to be classified as covet deaths if they again i'm 88 i i somehow you know was asymptomatic a month ago i but i got a positive pcr test now i die because i'm 88 that's a coveted death okay what we're seeing now in the united states and certainly in in europe we don't have data as good in the us from the last couple weeks but we have some pretty good data from europe and the uk is that the number of cova deaths when you add it to the number of non-cova deaths
is not as high as the overall number of deaths you would expect so what does that tell you that tells you that some non-cova deaths are probably being classified as covades these days so back in march and april there were more people dying than you would have thought based on the number of covadas now there are fewer people overall dying than you would think based on the number of cover deaths and i gotta add one more thing i know this gets complicated but it's worth it's worth thinking about we also know that a significant number of people are dying from lockdown okay there and and and the number one way you can look at that is overdose okay overdose deaths in this country have all you know they've been terrible for years this year it looks like they're off the charts so if 20 or 30 000 people and that's probably a reasonable estimate 20 or 30 000 extra people are dying this year from overdose alone that's that should push up the number of overall deaths and yet when you and then if you'd add the cova deaths it should be even higher when you put these three things together right now you're getting fewer deaths than you would expect again what i'm trying to say is i know that this math can sort of seem complicated and the stacking can seem complicated but right now it looks like a significant number of deaths that are being classified as covid would have occurred anyway and are just sort of being shifted into the covet pile and that was not so true a few months ago so when you see 3 000 people died today of covid until we get the true mortality figures for this year for for november and december we're not going to know if that's really true catch new episodes of the joe rogan experience for free only on spotify watch back catalog jre videos on spotify including clips easily seamlessly switch between video and audio experience on spotify
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